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Monday, October 20, 2008

Landslide?

Posted by on Mon, Oct 20, 2008 at 2:13 PM

Raleigh's own Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with its latest in NC: Obama by 7 over McCain (and Obama over 50%); and in the U.S. Senate race, Hagan over Dole by 7. Earlier, the Perdue campaign was touting a new Research 2000 poll showing Bev leading McCrory by 5 in the governor's race. Two weeks to go -- a long time in politics. But if Obama's solidly ahead in this supposed red state, McCain could be headed for a McGovern-like landing on Nov. 4.

PPP's analysis is below.

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama is now out to his largest lead yet in a PPP survey of

North Carolina, polling at 51% in the state compared to 44% for John McCain. Last

week Obama’s advantage was 49-46.

Independent voters continue to move toward Obama in droves. He now has a 51-33 lead

with them. He’s also now up to receiving 82% of the Democratic vote. Staying over the

80% threshold there would almost certainly ensure a victory in North Carolina.

McCain now leads among white voters just 55-39, an edge that’s not nearly enough given

Obama’s 92-6 lead with black voters. George W. Bush won about two thirds of the white

vote against both John Kerry and Al Gore in North Carolina.

“A lot of folks thought North Carolina might revert right back to the Republican column

after John McCain started really contesting here, but Barack Obama is holding strong,”

said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Assuming that the black vote is

pretty much fixed McCain needs to add about ten points to his lead among white voters in

the next two weeks if he’s going to win the state.”

In North Carolina’s US Senate race challenger Kay Hagan continues to lead incumbent

Elizabeth Dole, as she has now in PPP’s last seven surveys of the race. Hagan’s

advantage is now up to 49-42. Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38.

She’s also shoring up her support with the key Democratic constituency of black voters,

with whom she is now ahead 84-7, and improvement from 78-12 a week ago.

PPP will release numbers for Governor and select Council of State races tomorrow.

PPP surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 18th and 19th. The survey’s margin of error

is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce

additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

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