PPP: McCain lead in NC is 4; Hagan, Perdue both up 1 | News
News
INDY Week's news blog

Archives | RSS

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

PPP: McCain lead in NC is 4; Hagan, Perdue both up 1

Posted by on Wed, Sep 10, 2008 at 1:09 PM

Public Policy Polling, the Raleigh firm, is out with its first post-conventions survey of North Carolina voters. In NC, McCain leads Obama 48%-44%, with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr drawing 4%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic challenger Kay Hagan and incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican, are in a virtual tie; ditto gubernatorial candidates Bev Perdue, the Democrat, and Pat McCrory, the Republican. The numbers: Hagan 43%, Dole 42%, Libertarian Chris Cole 6%; Perdue 41%, McCrory 40%, Libertarian Mike Munger 6%.

Says PPP analyst Tom Jensen:

The race in North Carolina is pretty much where it was before the two party conventions- close but with a definite advantage for McCain. A concern for Obama rising out of this poll is that undecided whites have gone from 10% three weeks ago to just 3% now, and two thirds of them have gone into the McCain column.

A Survey USA (SUSA) poll for WTVD in Durham yesterday put McCain up 20 in NC, with Dole and McCrory each up 8. A good time to remember that approximately one poll in 20 will be an "outlier." In other words, given the mathematical probabilities of sampling, you can accurately predict voting behavior about 95% of the time within a "margin of error" that gets smaller the more people you sample. But then there's that other 5 percent of the time, when the results of the sample will be inaccurate. So, if we assume for argument's sake that the PPP poll is one of the 95% and the SUSA poll isn't, then with a margin of error of 4%, Obama could be even with McCain in NC, or he could be 8 behind -- or anywhere in between. But he's not 20 behind.

On top of which the Perdue campaign is out with this on the SUSA poll, arguing that it over-sampled Republicans -- another trap-door for pollsters.

Pollster.com analyzed the recent Survey USA poll and suggests that there’s a major error in the Survey USA methodology: “In other words, in a survey conducted less than a month later, Democrats made up 6% less of the sample and Republican representation increased by 8%. Everything we know about partisanship suggests that such massive shifts over such a short period are highly unlikely.”

You can read the post here: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/about_that_north_carolina_poll.php

Zach Ambrose

Campaign Manager

Tags: , , , , , ,

Pin It

Comments

Showing 1-1 of 1

Add a comment

 
Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-1 of 1

Add a comment

INDY Week publishes all kinds of comments, but we don't publish everything.

  • Comments that are not contributing to the conversation will be removed.
  • Comments that include ad hominem attacks will also be removed.
  • Please do not copy and paste the full text of a press release.

Permitted HTML:
  • To create paragraphs in your comment, type <p> at the start of a paragraph and </p> at the end of each paragraph.
  • To create bold text, type <b>bolded text</b> (please note the closing tag, </b>).
  • To create italicized text, type <i>italicized text</i> (please note the closing tag, </i>).
  • Proper web addresses will automatically become links.

Latest in News



Twitter Activity

Comments

I was diagnosed of hepatitis B in 2012,I have tried all possible means to get cure but all my effort …

by Austin calnor on The Problem with N.C.’s Religious Exemption Law (News)

"Since late November, Henderson County in Western North Carolina has seen 20 cases of pertussis, or whooping cough, and has …

by Liza Coutu on The Problem with N.C.’s Religious Exemption Law (News)

Most Read

Most Recent Comments

I was diagnosed of hepatitis B in 2012,I have tried all possible means to get cure but all my effort …

by Austin calnor on The Problem with N.C.’s Religious Exemption Law (News)

"Since late November, Henderson County in Western North Carolina has seen 20 cases of pertussis, or whooping cough, and has …

by Liza Coutu on The Problem with N.C.’s Religious Exemption Law (News)

What part of illegal don't they understand. Congress is considering the DACAs plus all other illegal aliens in a bill …

by john1050 on Durham Church Offers Immigrant Sanctuary from Deportation (News)

From the WRAL story:
http://www.wral.com/former-wake-register-o…
"John Stephenson, the county's internal auditor, said an average of $1,100 to …

by Mojo on Indictments in Wake Register of Deeds Scandal Charge Laura Riddick with Embezzling $926,615 (News)

Hopefully Indyweek will remember all this the next time they endorse a Republican (over and over again).

by Robert Larson on Indictments in Wake Register of Deeds Scandal Charge Laura Riddick with Embezzling $926,615 (News)

© 2017 Indy Week • 320 E. Chapel Hill St., Suite 200, Durham, NC 27701 • phone 919-286-1972 • fax 919-286-4274
RSS Feeds | Powered by Foundation