Iowa caucus forecast | Edwards Watch | Indy Week
Pin It

Iowa caucus forecast 

click to enlarge edwards.gif

The Iowa caucuses are tomorrow. The New Hampshire primary is five days later. By the next Indy, both tales will be told—and if Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama win both contests, the Democratic presidential nominee will be all but crowned. So, time for prognostication....

Will Edwards win Iowa? Yes.

Are you sure? No. But Oprah thrust Obama into the spotlight about a week too soon. It gave the Clinton campaign time to trash him (he's so inexperienced! and did you know, he did drugs!?), and gave Iowa Democrats a chance to contemplate whether Obama's the party's strongest candidate in '08.

Didn't the crisis in Pakistan help Clinton? Yes, by underlining Obama's foreign policy inexperience. But Clinton's claim to greater experience was hurt when The New York Times reported that she never attended a National Security Council meeting while Bill was president, nor even had a security clearance. It underlined Obama's complaint that her "experience" is mainly vicarious—but she doesn't represent "change," either.

And Edwards? Big break that he visited Pakistan as a senator; when he called the Pakistani ambassador, it led to President Perez Musharraf calling Edwards a few hours later.

Can Edwards survive a second-place Iowa finish? No. Because if Clinton wins, she'll win New Hampshire too and it'll be over. And if Obama wins, he and Clinton will remain 1-2 in New Hampshire (not necessarily in that order), with Edwards reduced to an also-ran.

If Edwards wins Iowa, will he win New Hampshire too? No. But he'll be in a dogfight with whoever does.

  • Can Edwards survive a second-place Iowa finish? No.

Comments

Subscribe to this thread:

Add a comment

INDY Week publishes all kinds of comments, but we don't publish everything.

  • Comments that are not contributing to the conversation will be removed.
  • Comments that include ad hominem attacks will also be removed.
  • Please do not copy and paste the full text of a press release.

Permitted HTML:
  • To create paragraphs in your comment, type <p> at the start of a paragraph and </p> at the end of each paragraph.
  • To create bold text, type <b>bolded text</b> (please note the closing tag, </b>).
  • To create italicized text, type <i>italicized text</i> (please note the closing tag, </i>).
  • Proper web addresses will automatically become links.

Latest in Edwards Watch



Twitter Activity

Comments

I agree - John Edwards is part of the health care problem. His ridiculous settlements with insurance companies makes Healthcare …

by tomgee on Why Edwards' policies caught on, but he didn't (Edwards Watch)

People seem to not realize the cost of John's great wealth from those law suits will be passed down to …

by ZEN on Why Edwards' policies caught on, but he didn't (Edwards Watch)

Most Read

No recently-read stories.

Visit the archives…

Most Recent Comments

I agree - John Edwards is part of the health care problem. His ridiculous settlements with insurance companies makes Healthcare …

by tomgee on Why Edwards' policies caught on, but he didn't (Edwards Watch)

People seem to not realize the cost of John's great wealth from those law suits will be passed down to …

by ZEN on Why Edwards' policies caught on, but he didn't (Edwards Watch)

GO-GO-GO GEORGE EDWARDS

by graurog on Still 47 states to go for Edwards (Edwards Watch)

Very good piece. I wish the media would have more discussions like this for the voters. I think any progressive …

by pmorlan on Edwards vs. Obama: Up with history (Edwards Watch)

Ron who?

by JohnD on On the ropes (Edwards Watch)

© 2017 Indy Week • 320 E. Chapel Hill St., Suite 200, Durham, NC 27701 • phone 919-286-1972 • fax 919-286-4274
RSS Feeds | Powered by Foundation