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Monday, December 23, 2013

Lumps of coal: New NASL 2014 spring season truncates schedule and fairness

Posted by on Mon, Dec 23, 2013 at 9:23 AM

Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the league
Not a rumor was stirring, much less any intrigue
When out of my  e-mail there arose such a clatter
I sprang to my laptop to see what was the matter

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a shrinking spring season with just nine games to cheer
More rapid than RailHawks its commands they came
As the press release shouted and called teams by name!

“Now Strikers! now, Silverbacks! now, Fury and Eddies!
On, Cosmos! On, Indy! on Scorpions and Rowdies!
For a berth in the Soccer Bowl! To the top of the table!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash ... if you’re able!”

I still support the North American Soccer League’s split regular season format. But, they’re making it really, really hard.

In July, the NASL announced their 2014 regular season would retain the split format adopted for 2013. However, the league shifted its midseason break to coincide with the FIFA World Cup. As a result of this and various other factors, the 2014 spring season would comprise 10 games per team to determine both a berth in and hosting rights for the season-ending Soccer Bowl championship. The 2014 fall campaign, which would begin on July 19 following the conclusion of the World Cup, would be a 20-game season to determine the other Soccer Bowl opponent.

However, when Virginia Cavalry FC announced earlier this month that the expansion side would delay their debut until 2015, that left the league with 10 teams for 2014 instead of 11, and a seeming mathematical quandary. Sticking with the same format not only meant lopping another game off the already truncated spring season schedule but also an inequitable allocation of home matches.

Last week, the NASL announced that’s exactly what it is going to do. The 2014 spring season will begin April 12 and run through June 8, with each of the 10 clubs playing a nine-game schedule to determine the spring champion. Far more insidious, however, is that five teams will play five home games: the New York Cosmos, San Antonio Scorpions, Tampa Bay Rowdies, Indy Eleven and Ottawa Fury FC. The remaining five teams—the Carolina RailHawks, Atlanta Silverbacks, Fort Lauderdale Strikers, FC Edmonton and Minnesota United FC—will play only four home games.

In a sport where home field advantage is renowned and with a schedule of only nine games, half the league playing one more home game than the other half is a patently unfair construction. Not only does it compromise the league’s competitive balance, but it also denies revenue from that lost home event to five presumably cash-strapped lower division soccer clubs. Meanwhile, the other five league members won’t share in the financial sting.

Compounding the inequity is the murky manner in which the spring season haves and have-nots were selected. A league official told Triangle Offense that determining the teams that would host five spring home games came down to venue blackout dates and other “scheduling considerations.”

This was also the reason given to Curt Johnson, president of the Carolina RailHawks. Speaking with Triangle Offense, Johnson says he was not part of any discussions with league officials over how many home games the RailHawks would host during the 2014 spring season. Indeed, Johnson says from April and November of next year, the team has only a single blackout date involving its use of WakeMed Soccer Park.

Would it have interfered with the RailHawks playing a fifth spring season home game?

“Not to my knowledge,” Johnson responded.

Such lack of transparency invites speculation as to why particular teams came to receive an additional home match. San Antonio has its privately-funded stadium to finance, Tampa Bay has the league’s newest deep-pocket owner, and Indy and Ottawa are the league’s two debut expansion franchises. And, of course, there’s the New York Cosmos™. It’s probably no coincidence that the two teams with the largest average attendances by sizable margins in 2013—San Antonio and New York—were among the chosen five. On the other hand, the three clubs owned and represented on the league’s Board of Directors in 2013 by Traffic Sports—Carolina, Fort Lauderdale and Atlanta—will play four spring home games.

In the case of the Carolina RailHawks, Johnson notes that the spring schedule delivers other particular disparities. Carolina is one of only three teams—along with Ottawa and Minnesota United—that will not play at home to open or conclude the spring season. Meanwhile, three teams already rewarded with five home games also get to open and close their spring seasons on home turf: New York, San Antonio and Tampa Bay.

Moreover, only two of Carolina’s five road opponents are located in the eastern time zone. Indeed, the RailHawks are the only team in the league that has to travel to both Edmonton and Ottawa for road matches.

This scheduling triple-whammy has left a sour taste in the mouths of RailHawks officials.

“I’m disappointed. I’m frustrated,” Johnson says. “I don’t think it’s the schedule it could have been for us. I think it’s a very difficult schedule. It puts us behind the eight-ball right from the start compared to the five teams that host five home games.

“At this point, it is what it is,” Johnson continues. “But for people who are analyzing schedules to see who got the most difficult one, I think it’s pretty clear who got the most difficult one.”

That said, Johnson says the team’s focus continues to be winning championships and entertaining their fans.

“This is a distraction,” Johnson says. “This is unfortunate from the RailHawks’ perspective. But it’s not going to define our season.”

While the removal of Virginia Cavalry FC from the 2014 schedule created these immediate scheduling snafus, the original sin was the league’s decision to suspend play for five weeks during the entire World Cup. In contrast, Major League Soccer will take a two-week break from June 12–24, during the initial group stage.

Moreover, the initial decision to reveal the 2014 split season format back in July when there was still an obvious risk for further upheaval prior to formulating the final schedule was a PR misstep. After the Cavalry bowed out, there were other options available to NASL officials, including adding a 10th spring game with opponents determined by rivalry, regional proximity or random draw in order to even out the number of home matches. Or, abandoning the pretense of completing a compressed spring season prior to the World Cup break in order to explore more flexible scheduling options.

Instead, the NASL has chosen a fundamentally flawed setup. And for five of its teams, this season’s salutation goes out as 2013 starts fading from sight:

“Happy Christmas to all, and enjoy your extra plane flight.”
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    I still support the NASL's split regular season format. But they’re making it really, really hard.

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Monday, October 7, 2013

Watching another league: Did a misguided tweet betray the NASL fall season's most pressing problem?

Posted by on Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 9:00 AM

Ralph's Mob has a message for NASL Commissioner Bill Peterson during the Tampa Bay Rowdies match at Fort Lauderdale last Saturday. - PHOTO BY CHRIS ARNOLD
  • Photo by Chris Arnold
  • Ralph's Mob has a message for NASL Commissioner Bill Peterson during the Tampa Bay Rowdies match at Fort Lauderdale last Saturday.

"The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers."
—Princess Leia, Star Wars

A couple of weeks ago, Bill Peterson, commissioner of the North American Soccer League (NASL), told Pieter Brown of the South Florida-based weekly podcast Ultras Alive that Peterson resisted publicizing pronouncements about the league’s disciplinary process because he found the reality of punishing players and coaches “quite embarrassing.”

I wonder how he feels about Twitter faux pas.

Last Thursday, Charlie Cole, president of Ralph’s Mob, the official supporters group of the Tampa Bay Rowdies, issued a stream of tweets regarding the NASL’s purported lack of response to direct inquiries over security concerns during the previous weekend’s match at the New York Cosmos. This followed similar communication complaints after several supporters groups sought redress about the rowdy behavior of the Atlanta Ultras supporters group during the NASL spring season.

Cole’s tweets finally culminated with a retort from Peterson, which the league commissioner has since deleted but not before the tweet was screen-captured for posterity:
The reaction on social media was swift and remonstrative. Some, including Ralph's Mob, called for Peterson to resign. During Saturday night’s rivalry match between the Rowdies and Fort Lauderdale Strikers, dozens of members of Ralph’s Mob and the two Strikers’ supporters groups, the Miami Ultras and Flight 19, walked out en masse at the 15th minute of the match to stage a 15-minute protest over the tweet.

This donnybrook follows another furor three weeks ago resulting from the ejection of Strikers’ manager Günter Kronsteiner, assistant coach Ricardo Lopes and bench player Walter Restrepo during Fort Lauderdale’s Sept. 15 match at Edmonton. That row ended with Kronsteiner and Lopes being escorted from the grandstands by police for continuing to electronically communicate with the bench area.

Instead of publicly addressing an incident where police remove your players and coaches from a stadium, the league allowed the matter to linger for three days before assessing the Strikers’ coaches with only a $250 fine beyond the automatic one-game suspension for being sent off by game officials. Even then, the league never issued a press release—details were made public by journalists in contact with the affected clubs. Later, Peterson ended up imparting a partial mea culpa, promising quasi-transparency in future high-profile disciplinary matters, even the embarrassing ones.

The common denominator between these two situations is that Peterson and the league’s single-minded preoccupation with message control ended up having the opposite intended effect. The Strikers-FC Edmonton affair was a story with a two-day, extremely limited news cycle that morphed into a two-week dialogue about the judgment of the league and its reconfigured front office staff. And now, “the tweet heard round the league” has already prompted a fan walkout and another inevitable round of reluctant damage control by Peterson.

But as impetuous and ill-advised as Peterson’s tweet was, it unwittingly hinted at an unsettling subtext to the NASL’s fall season, which kicked off in early August after a month-long break following the finale of the league’s spring campaign. Because when you delve deeper into the league’s fall attendance figures, you might wonder whether many fans have already heeded Peterson’s admonition.

First, the obvious positive news: overall NASL attendance is up sharply over last year’s official averages. In 2012, the NASL averaged 3,806 per match. Through last weekend’s matches, the league is averaging 4,675 per match, a 23 percent increase over last year’s final tally. Only the San Antonio Scorpions are averaging fewer fans than a year ago. Contrast this to USL Pro, whose attendance numbers remained stagnant from last year (2,676 average attendance in 2013, compared to 2,658 in 2012).

But a striking trend emerges upon parsing out the NASL spring and fall season figures. The seven NASL teams that played the spring season (i.e., everyone except the Cosmos) collectively averaged 4,653 per game. Currently through the fall campaign, those seven teams are averaging 4,301 per match, an eight percent drop. Indeed, all but two teams (FC Edmonton and the Tampa Bay Rowdies) are averaging fewer fans in the fall than the spring.

The figures are more distressing when you excise just two matches: the Cosmos’ visits to Tampa Bay and Fort Lauderdale, both highly marketed, tentpole events during which the home teams drew season-high attendances of 7,032 and 7,653, respectively. Absent these abnormal gates, the Rowdies are averaging 3,305 over their remaining three fall home games, a 18 percent decrease from the spring, while the Strikers are averaging 3,408 over their other four games, a 21 percent drop.

Fall averages are also markedly lower for Minnesota United FC (down 21 percent), the Atlanta Silverbacks (down 19 percent) and the San Antonio Scorpions (down eight percent). The Carolina RailHawks are down a relatively paltry three percent. The only appreciable jump belongs to FC Edmonton, enjoying a 24 percent increase over their spring totals partly thanks to expanded seating that didn’t open until May 12.

Divining the reasons for these decreases best begins by culling the red herrings. The first is fan fatigue, that supporters energized by a league spring title chase aren’t as hyped for the dog days of summer. But this excuse doesn’t jibe with the 2012 trend lines, when the final league average of 3,806 was essentially the same as the 3,720 average in mid-June with 40 percent of the league’s games complete.

Others may claim the lack of playoffs this season has diminished second-half fan enthusiasm. But, the NASL fall title chase is structurally no different than the spring title chase. Teams are still competing for a seasonal championship and a spot in the league's Soccer Bowl in November.

That leaves the most likely suspect: advertising, or more specifically, a gap therein. In U.S. lower division soccer, marketing is often propelled by momentum, and the month-long July break in the middle of the season brought not just a break in advertising, but also an absence of teams from the consciousness of their respective markets. Yes, the month break avoided some oppressive summer heat at a time when many families traditionally take summer vacations. But, cranking up the fall season is somewhat like starting the year all over again, except with a shorter run-up and an evaporating budget, and no Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup ties off which to springboard.

From the league’s Cosmos-centric mindset, fall season attendance is up over the spring. And that’s true in the most technical sense. But it’s also an apples to oranges comparison, and even in the Big Apple (well, Long Island), the Cosmos’ bullish debut attendance has receded over their ensuing four home matches.

With the Cosmos now opening up a sizable lead atop the league standings, it will be interesting to see how attendances respond with the fall title nearly decided and no second season around the bend. All marketing is local, so it remains to be seen whether teams have the time and resources for one last late-season ad push.

Or—whether it’s EPL, MLS, NFL, MLB, NHL or college football—will people just go watch another league?
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    Do NASL clubs have the time and resources for a late fall season marketing push? Or will people just watch another league?

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Final Four thoughts

Posted by on Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 11:29 AM

Is ACC basketball as we knew it over? Here, Duke and UNC players scrap over a loose ball in March 2010.
Fooled you—these are NOT thoughts about the Final Four this weekend in Atlanta.

Rather, these are my final four thoughts about the state of ACC and college basketball as the curtain closes on the 2012-13 season of basketball and basketball blogging for Triangle Offense.

1. Talk that the failure of an ACC team to reach the Final Four since 2010 is a sign of a weak conference is a bit overblown, for two reasons. First, the league has had teams in the final eight the past three years. Last year's Carolina team probably would have made it to the Final Four without the Kendall Marshall injury. This year's Duke team probably would have been a No. 1 seed without the Ryan Kelly midseason injury, and hence wouldn't have had to play a team as good as Louisville until reaching the Final Four.

Second, there are other much stronger indicators of the league's relative decline. By the start of conference play in January it was evident the league would be getting a max of five tourney bids—it ended up with four, which was about right. More tellingly, in recent years other schools beside Duke and Carolina have failed to break into the elite and make noise nationally at the same time. N.C. State was supposed to do that this year, but had a season of relative under-achievement and now faces the prospect of having to undergo a complete facelift of its personnel. Miami did break through in the regular season and ACC Tournament, but its woeful performance against Marquette in the Sweet 16 was a major letdown.

Generally speaking, ACC basketball has been in slight decline the last four years or so. But all that its supposed to change next year with conference expansion, leading to our second thought...

2. Is ACC basketball as we have known it simply over? I have heard that opinion expressed by many long-time fans who are not pleased with conference expansion. They may be right. But there is a clear-cut way to preserve local rivalries: creating "pods" or divisions with home-and-home play within each of 4 pods (in a 16 team league) or 3 pods (in a 15 team league). Either way, you could have an 18 game league schedule, plus a tournament that would be truly interesting as a mechanism for determining the league's best team, since the unbalanced conference standings wouldn't tell you. This would allow the Big Four teams to play each other home and away every year, and keep at least part of the Tobacco Road tradition going.

Continue reading…

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    Is ACC basketball as we have known it simply over? And other season-ending musings.

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Friday, March 29, 2013

The never-ending game: the travesty of TV timeouts in the NCAA tourney

Posted by on Fri, Mar 29, 2013 at 11:48 AM

Brad Cook, musician, basketball fan and one-time Indy model
Well, sports fans, we are down to the final 12 teams standing in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Only one ACC team remains standing, Duke, and few outside Durham expect the Blue Devils to advance past this weekend. Syracuse and Louisville are also in the hunt, but no, they don't count as ACC teams yet.

As the games wind down, unfortunately, the necessity for viewers to actually watch the TV timeouts goes up. No more will there be four games on a time to skip between; instead, there's one game at a time, and if you plan to watch it live, you are going to be watching a lot of ads.

In regular season play, there are four "media timeouts" per half, plus coach timeouts, plus in the 2nd half the first coach time out automatically becomes a fifth media timeout. For this NCAA tournament, they are also making the first coach timeout in the first half a full media timeout. So we are talking about ten media timeouts in most games, plus additional coach timeouts.

How long are the media timeouts? I've been timing them on my DVR, and usually whistle to whistle there is between 2:45 and 3:00 of real time between the stop and start of play. That's a lot of coaches talking, players and fans standing around, trips to the bathroom, and mindless commercials airing.

Then there's halftime. Standard halftime for an NCAA basketball game is 15 minutes. In the NCAA Tournament, halftimes have been lasting 22 minutes or more.

Why is the NCAA (and CBS) blatantly breaking the rules of basketball by having Orange Bowl-sized timeouts?

That cha-ching you hear in your mind as the question is asked is surely the reason why.

Continue reading…

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    Basketball is designed to be a sport of two halves, and it's supposed to be a sport of stamina, flow and momentum.

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Friday, March 22, 2013

A (partial) defense of March Madness

Posted by on Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 12:49 PM

Cameron Crazies in 2010
  • File photo by D.L. Anderson
  • Cameron Crazies in 2010
In April 1 issue of The Nation, “Edge of Sports” columnist Dave Zirin has an article titled “The NCAA: Poster Boy for Corruption and Exploitation” which shines a light on what is described as the exploitation of college athletes by the money-making NCAA “cartel” that brings in millions through March Madness while the athletes get nothing.

I have a particular interest in that piece not just as a basketball follower but because I also once wrote a piece for The Nation critiquing college sports, titled "Bad as They Wanna Be" back in 1998. That said, the tone of Zirin’s piece leaves me uneasy and on at least one major point, entirely unconvinced.

There is a strange disconnect between descriptions of NCAA basketball as a sheer exploitation machine and the observed fact that the participants in March Madness seem highly invested in and excited about their teams’ success. It’s quite wrong to imply that the athletes are getting nothing out of this arrangement: They get the benefits and satisfactions of testing themselves in competition and practicing their athletic craft at a high level. In theory, they also get the benefits of a college education and a chance to change their life trajectories.

Should they also get financial benefits? I certainly think so. Zirin calls for athletes to get stipends; I favor that, and also favor athletes in the revenue sports getting a substantial lump sum payment upon graduation.

Is it also the case that too many athletes are not getting the full benefits of the college education promised? Certainly, especially at the biggest schools, in the biggest sports. But many athletes are in fact having a good experience in the classroom and on the field, in the non-revenue sports and outside the quasi-pro big schools. Some are even having good experiences within the biggest sports factories. And the fact is, March Madness pays for a great deal of it—including thousands of opportunities for women athletes.

And is it not also the case that too many athletes, especially males, are getting too many benefits of the wrong kind—that is excessive social adulation that sometimes translates into problematic behavior and attitudes of entitlement? Yes, that is a real phenomenon and danger too.

These are reasonable questions to raise. But Zirin, in his recent writings, seems bent on adopting an “abolitionist” position—he wants to abolish the NCAA, calling it a “corrupt cartel.”

This is not a well-thought out position; and in the context of his article, it’s illogical.

Consider Zirin’s five proposed reforms. The first is providing athletes with compensation protections in case of injury (I agree); the second and third are requiring institutions to offer athletes four-year scholarships and giving athletes stipends (I also agree). The NCAA in fact already requires athletes to have health insurance (either family-based or provided by their schools) and also provides a catastrophic insurance policy for athletes, and in the past couple of years has actually shown openness towards movement on the latter two issues. This is not to say the current insurance programs or proposed reforms are adequate, but there is no inherent reason why the current NCAA structure could not implement these reforms (especially if pressured to do so, a point I will return to below).

Zirin also says ceilings should be placed on coaching salaries so as to fund the stipends. I’m not opposed, but am not sure this will do what Zirin claims. No calculations are provided to show that this move would be enough to cover a substantial stipend; the real areas to look at costs savings are in bloated athletic bureaucracies and in the arms race to build bigger and better stadiums and facilities.

Finally, Zirin says the NCAA should be abolished. And replaced with what? Zirin doesn’t say. This is a problem because the stipend and scholarship reforms he favors each presume the existence of a governing body that can compel institutions to agree by a common framework of rules—the essential function the NCAA performs.

Zirin does say he thinks the pro leagues in football and basketball should fund their own minor league teams, and not leave the job to colleges. It’s a nice thought, but it is on par with saying that it would be nice if we could abolish the U.S. Senate because it over-represents low-population states.

That is to say, the idea doesn’t take seriously a couple of key facts. First, millions of people are highly invested in their college sports teams—not just those big-contract coaches or fat cat university donors, but ordinary people, the kind leftist writers claim to be in sympathy with. Second, one cannot wave a magic wand and undo more than a century's worth of evolution of a country’s particular sports culture and replace it with something one thinks better.

Now perhaps Zirin doesn’t intend for these minor leagues to actually replace college sports. After all, minor league baseball and college baseball co-exist. (Which raises a question: Does Zirin really think an 18-year-old is better off forgoing college altogether to embark directly in a pro athletic career that is likely to be short?) Even if you had minor leagues funded by the NFL and NBA, they would not replace the role of college sports in the American sports landscape.

The reality is that college sports are here to stay, simply because they are too important to too many people (not all of whom are rich and powerful elites). And so long as you have college sports, you need a governing body. Indeed you need a governing body that is far more assertive and proactive than the current NCAA, but it’s hard to see how doing away with the current NCAA is going to get you something better.

Continue reading…

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Monday, March 18, 2013

Mysteries of the brackets: North Carolina schools face tough draws

Posted by on Mon, Mar 18, 2013 at 9:02 AM

The state of North Carolina has placed five schools in the 68-team men's NCAA basketball tournament: Davidson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina A&T and North Carolina State.

The NCAA committee didn't exactly hand any of these schools a break. A&T has been forced to participate in what used to be known as the "play-in" game, now rebranded the "First Four." The First Four consists of four games, two involving teams like A&T that didn't win their league regular season but snuck in the field by winning their conference tournament, and two games involving the final four at-large teams admitted. The Aggies must get by Liberty, the only team with a losing record this year, champions of the Big South.

The Sagarin college basketball ratings make A&T (No. 242) a one-point favorite over Liberty (No. 260). The reward for winning would be a date with Louisville in what quite ridiculously is now called the "Second Round." Sagarin has Louisville as a 27-point favorite in such a matchup. The best team the Aggies have played this year is Cincinnati—a 54-point loss early on. Later A&T did play major conference teams Texas Tech and Seton Hall much closer, losing by 11 in each case.

Davidson's 14-seed is due to a weak schedule. But at 25-7, this Wildcat team knows how to shoot and how to win. Davidson hasn't lost since Jan. 14, and already has played Gonzaga and Duke reasonably close, losing by 14 and 17 points respectively. Sagarin makes Davidson out to be just a six-point underdog against Marquette, who probably wasn't thrilled to draw the Southern Conference outfit on the 14 line.

Then we have the local ACC teams. Despite finishing second in the ACC regular season, many projections last week had Duke as a likely 1-seed. The loss to Maryland in the first round of the ACC Tournament Friday ended those chances, and now the Blue Devils face a potentially challenging road to the Final Four. In the Sweet 16, 3-seed Michigan State could be waiting, and 1-seed Louisville could be there in the regional final (if they can get by A&T or Liberty, of course). The Spartans are as ever a bruising outfit that could cause Duke problems, and most people think Louisville is now playing the best ball in the nation.

But you never know what's going to happen along the way; perhaps upsets in the other side of the bracket will clear the way for Duke to make it to Atlanta without having to spring upsets of their own. The task this week is to get by Albany and either Creighton or Cincinnati. North Carolina faced Creighton in the round of 32 last year and some Tar Heel fans are still bitter about the foul that ended Kendall Marshall's season. Those same fans would surely put their bitterness aside and cheer on the Bluejays against the Blue Devils if the teams meet.

For what it's worth, Duke is 18 points better than Albany, according to Sagarin. Duke would be favored by just four over Creighton and six over Cincy in the second round.

North Carolina State needs to at least match its Sweet 16 run of a year ago to avert the sense that this season was an opportunity squandered. The Wolfpack have been given a tough row to hoe as an 8-seed, despite being ranked No. 25 by Sagarin. State plays Temple in the East region, with Indiana likely waiting in the wings in the second round.

The good news for NCSU is that Sagarin makes the Wolfpack a healthy four-point favorite over the A-10 Owls. Temple has quality wins over VCU and Syracuse, but lost to Duke by 23.

A good effort by State should see them into the second round, setting up an intriguing matchup with Indiana. The two schools met early in the 2011-12 season with the Hoosiers overturning a halftime deficit to prevail by 11. Sagarin makes Indiana out to be a six point favorite if the teams play this year.

This leaves us with North Carolina. The Tar Heels fell to an 8-seed despite being ranked No. 19 by Sagarin (and similarly in the RPI ratings), either due to lack of a signature win over an elite team or because CBS wants to market another Jayhawk-Tar Heel game, depending on your sense of how the committee process actually works.

In any case, the Heels have no choice but to get on with it. Sagarin makes Carolina out to be a three-point favorite over Villanova. Nova has had an up and down season but owns big wins over Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown. They are not a great shooting team; the question of this game is going to be whether Carolina's potent offense can overcome Villanova's stingy defense (rated 24th nationally by Ken Pomeroy.)

Should Carolina win and should Kansas somehow manage to overcome Western Kentucky, strictly speaking Kansas would be a five-point favorite in the Third Round (Formerly Known as the Second Round).

That might seem manageable, but consider that the game would be played in Kansas City—and Sagarin's method adds four points on to the home team in making predictions. Really then, you're talking about Carolina trying to win as a nine-point underdog.

A tall order, but there is some precedent in recent history. The last two times Carolina made the tournament as an 8-seed—2000 and 1990—the Tar Heels knocked out a 1-seed (Stanford and Oklahoma, respectively) to advance to the Sweet 16.

If the Tar Heels can tap their shoes together three times and repeat that history, little girls across Kansas next Sunday night will be telling their dogs, "Toto, we're not in the NCAA Tournament anymore."

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    The NCAA committee didn't exactly hand any of the North Carolina schools a break.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Remember when people really cared about the ACC Tournament? Here's a proposal to restore the luster.

Posted by on Tue, Mar 12, 2013 at 8:53 AM

Will parity prove the elixir for this year’s ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament?

Yes, top-seeded Miami and Duke are the odds-on favorites. But unlike the top-heavy tourneys of yore, at least five teams—including North Carolina, N.C. State and Virginia—enter this weekend with a realistic hope of winning the ACC conference crown.

But no matter who cuts the nets down this Sunday, more ink will again be spilled chronicling and diagnosing the ongoing erosion of the college basketball conference tournament. Whenever articles are written on this subject, however, the true objects of lament are really the major conferences. Small and mid-major tournaments are thrilling as ever, as schools in the Ohio Valley or Big South tournaments aren’t just playing for conference glory; they’re fighting for their one shot at the Big Dance.

While major conference tourneys continue to publish capacity attendances, actual turnstile figures and the basic eyeball test tell a different story. The ACC released sold-out attendance figures for the 2010 tournament in Greensboro, but the average turnstile number per session was only 15,690. Despite changes in ticket allocation between the member schools beginning in 2011, empty seats pervaded Philips Arena in Atlanta throughout tournament weekend last year, particularly the perennially poorly-attended Thursday sessions.

Continue reading…

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    Only a conference’s automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament should be eligible to be a No. 1 seed.

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Friday, March 8, 2013

The global significance of Carolina-Duke (yes, really)

Posted by on Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 10:32 AM

Dukes Jon Scheyer (right) and Marcus Ginyard clash in this 2010 encounter.
A couple of years ago a local radio personality asked me on a pregame show prior to a Duke-Carolina game whether our long-running local hardwood feud is the "biggest rivalry in all of sports." I hesitated a bit, and said "well there is Real Madrid-Barcelona, and Celtic-Rangers." (Loyal readers of Triangle Offense will recall from my blog postings during the 2010 World Cup that I'm as passionate about soccer as college basketball.)

OK, but really, where do Carolina and Duke fit in The Big Picture? That's the kind of comparative sports culture question that has long fascinated political scientist Andrei (Andy) Markovits of the University of Michigan, who has spent the past week shuttling between Chapel Hill and Durham on a spring break visit from Ann Arbor.

The ostensible reason for Markovits' visit to town is to participate in a conference on the 30th anniversary of the German Green Party's entrance into the Bundestag, as well as a series of talks and classroom visits related to Markovits' scholarly expertise in German politics, contemporary anti-Semitism and related issues.

But while German politics made Markovits' academic career, it's his writing about global sport that has given him a much larger public audience. Markovits is lead author of three widely respected, scholarly books about sports and sports culture: Offside: Soccer and American Exceptionalism, which explains why the U.S. uniquely doesn't treat soccer as a major spectator sport; Gaming the World, a study of the impact of sports on globalization processes; and Sportista, a study of female sports fandom in the U.S. that was published last fall.

Markovits's next sports-related project is a comparative analysis of great rivalries in world sport. And that brings us to the real organizing principle behind his visit to these parts this week: in order to take his first-ever pilgrimages to the local temples of basketball—Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Dean E. Smith Center—as well as scratch an item off his bucket list by attending the Carolina-Duke game tomorrow night in Chapel Hill. Markovits plans to include a section on the Carolina-Duke hoops rivalry in his next book.

Hence this past Saturday night, Markovits took in the epic Duke-Miami game from center court as the guest of a ranking Duke academic administrator. Eighteen hours later, he was in Chapel Hill watching the Tar Heels dismantle Florida State from plush lower level seats in the Dean Dome.

Markovits has been a Tar Heel admirer from afar for many years. We met 10 years ago when he was a visiting scholar and I was a graduate student at Harvard; he decided to teach my book on Carolina basketball in his Harvard course on sports and modernity and invited me to give a guest lecture on the history of UNC basketball. He continues to assign the book (“More Than a Game: Why North Carolina Basketball Means So Much To So Many”) to his course on sports culture at the University of Michigan, a course which is featured in an ESPN magazine article this week on the legacy of the Fab Five.

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    That observation points to one of Markovits' key themes: College sports teams in the U.S. are the equivalent of soccer clubs in Europe.

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Friday, March 1, 2013

Is college basketball getting worse? and other thoughts on a changing game

Posted by , and on Fri, Mar 1, 2013 at 11:14 AM

Here at Triangle Offense, we're catching our breath in the last lull of the college basketball season. Next week sees the buildup to the season-ending UNC-Duke tilt that will determine the course of the free world until the next time the two teams meet. Week after that is the ACC Tournament, which despite its extreme unimportance, is a tradition unlike any other—than March Madness, of course.

So, with nothing much going on beside a UNC-Clemson scrap down in Littlejohn Coliseum and third-ranked Duke getting floor-rushed yet again, this time at Virginia, basketball scribes Thad Williamson and Rob Harrington agreed to email each other some thoughts, prompted by my question below:

On Thu, Feb 28, 2013 at 12:56 PM, David Fellerath wrote:
Thad, there's a bit of a media meme about college basketball, namely that the game has become dull, with the rules tipping the balance in favor of defenders. Here's Adam Gold on The key metric is that scoring is at its lowest in 30 years. Here's The New York Times on this subject.

What do you make of this?

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Friday, February 22, 2013

In search of a close game in Chapel Hill: Carolina-State, Round II

Posted by on Fri, Feb 22, 2013 at 3:08 PM

An outtake from a 2008 INDY Week cover shoot featuring Megafauns Brad Cook
There's not quite as much buzz about the second installment of Carolina-State's basketball rivalry as there was prior to the first meeting last month. This could be for several reasons, including the fact that the Duke game is still on another level emotionally for the Tar Heel fan base, as well as State's unexpectedly low league position. Battling for third place is just not as sexy as battling for the league lead.

But it also could be because the memory does not easily recall examples of classic, close-to-the wire Carolina-State games played in Chapel Hill. The game in Raleigh is always a big event for both teams because of the intensity of the crowd, the fact that State has usually been competitive even as an underdog against the Tar Heels at home, and because there have been some exciting, tense games (though none that have come down to the final possessions recently).

The situation in Chapel Hill has been different. Not only has Carolina held court since 2003 against the Pack at home, they've done so in generally dominant fashion. True, Roy Williams's first Tar Heel team in 2004 had to sweat out a tough 68-66 win (an important W for that particular team). But since then the average margin of Carolina's wins over State at home has been 18.5 points, with the closest game being an 89-80 victory by the 2009 Tar Heels, a contest played at a stage of the season when the eventual national titleists were not showing a great deal of zeal on defense.

Going further back, truly close games in Chapel Hill have been a rarity for some time. The 2003 State win in Chapel Hill came in overtime. In 1997, Carolina pulled off a stunning comeback in the final two minutes to defeat State and avoid an 0-3 start to ACC play, a win that helped jump start a run that ended in the Final Four. State pulled off a 99-94 upset win in Chapel Hiil in 1992, a highlight in an otherwise tough year for Les Robinsons's crew.

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Gaffe-r is right...he f8cks up all the time. "A lot of success over the last 3 years"....less smoke blows out …

by DonGarbageBlows on Colin Clarke returns as head coach of Carolina RailHawks (Sports)

OMG HAHAHA GREAT hire HAHAHAHA such a record of success :D

by DonGarbageBlows on Colin Clarke returns as head coach of Carolina RailHawks (Sports)

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