HomeNewsNorth Carolina  }

Martin vs. Dole: It's likely

5 SEP 2007  •  by Bob Geary, rjgeary (at) mac (dot) com



Photo courtesy of Grier Martin
Grier Martin against Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate seemed like a longshot two months ago, after Congressman Brad Miller bowed out of the "I might be the Democrat who takes on Liddy in '08" sweepstakes. Martin, a state representative who lives in Raleigh, said he'd been waiting on Miller and would be "looking at" the race, but there were many questions in his mind, including how to raise the big money ($20 million?) needed to compete against the incumbent Dole. A few days ago, Martin said he's still looking and the money's still daunting. But he's convinced Dole is vulnerable and maybe even, he said, vulnerable to him. There was no mistaking the new bounce in his tone: He wants to run. And he's much closer to doing it.

How would the soon-to-be 39-year-old Martin match up against Dole, who in July turned 71? She's vastly more experienced, obviously. He has all of two state House terms under his belt. But he's the up-and-comer, the Afghan war vet (a lawyer in the Army Reserves, he volunteered for active duty after 9/11) who also stood strong against the scandalous state lottery—despite heat from the now-disgraced Jim Black. With her experience, Dole backed the war in Iraq and is still an all-out supporter.

What about charisma? Dole's is very controlled, and she's been little-seen in North Carolina since her election in 2002. Martin's energy and outgoing personality are huge plusses for him.

Martin's not the only Democrat "looking at" a Dole race—others reportedly include ex-state Sen. Howard Lee, 73, of Chapel Hill, now the chair of the N.C. Board of Education and a member of the N.C. Utilities Commission.

2 COMMENTS

Very enjoyable article, especially your assessment of the intangibles like "no mistaking the new bounce in his tone" - very nice writing. I have one minor complaint - your passage: "including how to raise the big money ($20 million?) needed to compete against the incumbent Dole." No doubt, a race against Dole would require a bankroll in the millions. But $20 million is hardly accurate. Check out my recent post looking at a Martin vs. Dole race: http://senate2008guru.blogspot.com/2007/09/nc-sen-introducing-grier-martin.html (this post also includes citations for all of the below information) You'll notice a large chunk analyzing the fundraising situation. First, looking at a few precedents from just last year, a number of Democratic challengers were outspent by Republican incumbents 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1, outspent by over $10 million in some cases, and were still victorious. While Martin would have to raise millions of dollars, $20 million is most likely an overstatement. He would only have to raise about half of whatever Dole raises. Which brings me to my second point. Back in January, Dole said that her fundraising goal would be $1 million per month. Well, she has failed to raise $1 million in any month so far in 2007. In fact, at the end of June 2007, six months into the year, she had only $1.76 million on hand - not exactly an intimidating figure for a challenger who can generate excitement at the grassroots (and netroots) levels. Even if Dole averages $750,000 to $1 million per month for the rest of the cycle, that means that she will only have had about $15 million at her disposal, all told. Martin would probably have to only raise $7 or 8 million to be competitive. (I realize saying "only" $7 million is fairly absurd, but that is the reality of political finance today.) And that is before independent expenditures (for instance, the DSCC - the Democrats' national Senate fundraising arm - is vastly outraising the NRSC - the GOP Senate fundraising arm - and will be able to provide Martin with more help than the NRSC could provide Dole). Given Martin's military experience and his noted charisma, coupled with Dole's ongoing blind adherence to the Bush administration on Iraq and lack of visibility in North Carolina, oft preferring to spend all her time in Washington DC, Martin could indeed run a very competitive campaign against Dole for fifty cents on Dole's dollar. Best, Senate 2008 Guru http://senate2008guru.blogspot.com/
by Senate 2008 Guru , Outside of NC 6 Sep 2007, 5:20pm Report this comment
Grier Martin will do it. These four facts make his candidacy the only choice. 1. He is smart. His record bears this out, and I have seen him in action. 2. He is dedicated to public service. His active military service and devotion to important issues demonstrate that he wants to do all he can for the people. He can do much more for us by representing us in the U.S. Senate than in the N.C. house. 3. He can win. His clean moderate record, military service and smarts make him very electable in N.C. 4. Now is his best chance to win. The Republicans are held in lower esteem than at any time since Watergate. Dole has done nothing to distinguish herself from the rest of her sorry crooked party. YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU, GRIER! NOW IS YOUR TIME! GOD HAS CREATED YOU TO DO THIS FOR US!
by Matthew Brown Raleigh 12 Sep 2007, 4:42pm Report this comment
Add to the discussion
Post your comment
Add to the discussion
Post your comment
 
return to top