Obama gets 51 percent of the popular vote nationally, net of what the Republicans can suppress or disqualify. He carries North Carolina and Florida by a hair. I said the other day that he'd lose Colorado and wind up with 338 electoral votes — not a landslide, but close. Colorado, because of the marijuana referendum, is the one place that Libertarian Gary Johnson may draw support, and if he does, it probably comes out of Obama's total. I think now that Obama will also carry Colorado ... but for consistency's sake, I'll stick with 51 percent and 338 electoral votes for Obama.
The new PPP poll has Walter Dalton 7 points down to Pat McCrory. If Democrats, having voted for Obama, pull the party lever for partisan races in the state, it will reduce McCrory's margin even more, maybe to as little as 2-3 points. But I don't see how Dalton erases the gap with independents given how much money McCrory's (and the Republicans) spent and how little Dalton was able to spend. So I'll say McCrory in the governor's race with 52 percent.
I think Forest is your next lieutenant governor and Cherie Berry probably survives on the elevator inspections (tough to call her a labor commissioner). Otherwise, I expect Democrats to win the Council of State races.
I know Ervin vs. The Twangy Guy (Newby) is an important election for state Supreme Court. But I have no insight there — so I'll guess that Ervin wins.
The three Democrats will sweep the Wake County commissioners elections, leaving the 4-3 Republican majority intact for two more years.
Today's must-read by Lynn Parramore, once (and still) of Raleigh, urges her fellow progressives to get past the redneck stereotype in their heads about the southern white male. If they do, they'll realize:
What liberals and progressives don’t seem to understand is that you don’t counter a myth with a pile of facts and statistics. You have to counter it with a more powerful story.
Because I married southern, she's talking about some people I love — a.k.a., the Republican base.
The piece is so good I just tweeted it!
This is just excellent! "What if Liberals and Progressives Could Learn to Talk to White Southern Men?" | Alternet alternet.org/election-2012/…— Bob Geary (@rjgeary) November 5, 2012
The announced start time is either 3:30 or 4, depending on which Obama announcement you believe. That's when they open things up. "Get there early," they say. Expect Clinton to begin ... well, who knows? I'm guessing 5?
The entrance to Pullen Park is on Ashe Avenue. I wouldn't try to drive on Ashe, however. It's a very small street. There's lots of parking in the N.C. State lots, many of which are within a 1/2-mile of Pullen Park and open to the public on a Sunday. Or park somewhere on the Dorothea Dix Hospital campus, which isn't that far away on the other side of Western Boulevard.
You need a ticket to get in. They're free. They're available online only. Go to http://ofa.bo/ClintonRaleigh — or the slow way is through www.mybarackobama.com.
So yesterday we learned that neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has N.C. on their travel schedules for the rest of the campaign. Then we learned Michelle Obama will be in Charlotte Monday. And now we know that Bill Clinton is due in Raleigh on
Saturday morning Sunday. [Update: The campaign has moved it back a day.]
Where in Raleigh? Don't know. When? Early,
I think — but don't know. I'm sure the campaign is scrambling to find a suitable venue — and have it help with Early Voting turnout, not get in the way.
N.C. State, maybe?
More when we have something more.
Everything I see tells me Obama is pulling ahead of Romney by 2-3 points nationally, more in critical states for Romney (Virginia, N.H., Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and the all-important Ohio). Obama is focusing his efforts there, as he should. He doesn't need North Carolina to win. That doesn't mean he can't win it.
Similarly, Romney must assume that he'll win in North Carolina and try to make up ground in the other states where he's trailing. But the fact that he must look past N.C. doesn't mean he'll win it. Every recent poll but one says N.C. is dead even — a tossup.
This morning's jobs report is huge for Obama, as is the fact that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, is showing him the kind of respect for the president that no Republican in Congress has shown him since, well, since Obama was inaugurated. It's a reminder of what bipartisanship would look like if the Republicans weren't so damnably, cynically partisan.
From NBC News guy (h/t Jonathan Kappler) —
Obama's travel plans:
Obama's final sked: THU — WI, NV, CO; FRI — OH; SAT — OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN — NH, FL, OH, CO; MON — WI, OH, IA
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) November 1, 2012
Romney's plans, with a hole on Sunday:
Romney's final sked: THU — VA; FRI — WI, OH; SAT — IA, NH, CO; SUN: —TDB; MON —NH
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) November 1, 2012
But then there's this, a new Obama ad with Colin Powell's endorsement:
Obama goes up with new TV ad in North Carolina, a sign that it thinks the state is still close: The Obama camp... bit.ly/Sqs36B
— underthedome (@underthedome) November 1, 2012
Bottom line: If Obama can still win North Carolina — as apparently he can — why hasn't he been in the state since the Democratic Convention in Charlotte almost two months ago now?
Answer (maybe): He's ahead in Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado and Ohio, and if holds his leads in them, he doesn't need North Carolina. If they slip away, it's trouble.
Plus, it's all ground game now in N.C. There are no undecided voters, only potential voters who may not come to the polls. Better to keep the campaign operation focused on turning them out rather than needing to gear up for a presidential visit that will generate TV coverage Obama's getting anyway.