Monday, November 5, 2012
Progress Still Possible Election predictions? Mine are as follows —
Posted by Bob Geary @rjgeary on Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM
Obama gets 51 percent of the popular vote nationally, net of what the Republicans can suppress or disqualify. He carries North Carolina and Florida by a hair. I said the other day that he'd lose Colorado and wind up with 338 electoral votes — not a landslide, but close. Colorado, because of the marijuana referendum, is the one place that Libertarian Gary Johnson may draw support, and if he does, it probably comes out of Obama's total. I think now that Obama will also carry Colorado ... but for consistency's sake, I'll stick with 51 percent and 338 electoral votes for Obama.
The new PPP poll has Walter Dalton 7 points down to Pat McCrory. If Democrats, having voted for Obama, pull the party lever for partisan races in the state, it will reduce McCrory's margin even more, maybe to as little as 2-3 points. But I don't see how Dalton erases the gap with independents given how much money McCrory's (and the Republicans) spent and how little Dalton was able to spend. So I'll say McCrory in the governor's race with 52 percent.
I think Forest is your next lieutenant governor and Cherie Berry probably survives on the elevator inspections (tough to call her a labor commissioner). Otherwise, I expect Democrats to win the Council of State races.
I know Ervin vs. The Twangy Guy (Newby) is an important election for state Supreme Court. But I have no insight there — so I'll guess that Ervin wins.
The three Democrats will sweep the Wake County commissioners elections, leaving the 4-3 Republican majority intact for two more years.
Your picks?
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