Election predictions? Mine are as follows — | Citizen | Indy Week
Citizen
INDY Week columnist Bob Geary's Raleigh news & politics blog

Archives | RSS

Monday, November 5, 2012

Election predictions? Mine are as follows —

Posted by on Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Obama gets 51 percent of the popular vote nationally, net of what the Republicans can suppress or disqualify. He carries North Carolina and Florida by a hair. I said the other day that he'd lose Colorado and wind up with 338 electoral votes — not a landslide, but close. Colorado, because of the marijuana referendum, is the one place that Libertarian Gary Johnson may draw support, and if he does, it probably comes out of Obama's total. I think now that Obama will also carry Colorado ... but for consistency's sake, I'll stick with 51 percent and 338 electoral votes for Obama.

The new PPP poll has Walter Dalton 7 points down to Pat McCrory. If Democrats, having voted for Obama, pull the party lever for partisan races in the state, it will reduce McCrory's margin even more, maybe to as little as 2-3 points. But I don't see how Dalton erases the gap with independents given how much money McCrory's (and the Republicans) spent and how little Dalton was able to spend. So I'll say McCrory in the governor's race with 52 percent.

I think Forest is your next lieutenant governor and Cherie Berry probably survives on the elevator inspections (tough to call her a labor commissioner). Otherwise, I expect Democrats to win the Council of State races.

I know Ervin vs. The Twangy Guy (Newby) is an important election for state Supreme Court. But I have no insight there — so I'll guess that Ervin wins.

The three Democrats will sweep the Wake County commissioners elections, leaving the 4-3 Republican majority intact for two more years.

Your picks?

Tags:

Pin It

Comments

Subscribe to this thread:

Add a comment

INDY Week publishes all kinds of comments, but we don't publish everything.

  • Comments that are not contributing to the conversation will be removed.
  • Comments that include ad hominem attacks will also be removed.
  • Please do not copy and paste the full text of a press release.

Permitted HTML:
  • To create paragraphs in your comment, type <p> at the start of a paragraph and </p> at the end of each paragraph.
  • To create bold text, type <b>bolded text</b> (please note the closing tag, </b>).
  • To create italicized text, type <i>italicized text</i> (please note the closing tag, </i>).
  • Proper web addresses will automatically become links.

Latest in Citizen



Twitter Activity

Most Recent Comments

If you or someone you know was forced out of the poker/sweepstakes business or lost their job, because this dirty …

by Constitution for games on Sweepstakes gambling on the way out in NC? (Citizen)

To those think it is addictive and a problem are the ones sounds like had the problems and not winning. …

by nickie on Sweepstakes gambling on the way out in NC? (Citizen)

You know...to those who dislike the gaming rooms..whether you have played in one or not...it is your chose to play …

by ThisWorld on Sweepstakes gambling on the way out in NC? (Citizen)

Of course you can't give airtime to fringe conspiracy theorists, flat earthers, etc! People who can take a voluntary blessing …

by Michael Czeiszperger on In Raleigh: Hitler used ovens, Obama will use hospice to kill people like me. (Citizen)

My grandfather is currently in hospice, we have had a wonderful experience with them. They are helpful in any way …

by ck5711 on In Raleigh: Hitler used ovens, Obama will use hospice to kill people like me. (Citizen)

Comments

If you or someone you know was forced out of the poker/sweepstakes business or lost their job, because this dirty …

by Constitution for games on Sweepstakes gambling on the way out in NC? (Citizen)

To those think it is addictive and a problem are the ones sounds like had the problems and not winning. …

by nickie on Sweepstakes gambling on the way out in NC? (Citizen)

Most Read

No recently-read stories.

Visit the archives…

© 2016 Indy Week • 201 W. Main St., Suite 101, Durham, NC 27701 • phone 919-286-1972 • fax 919-286-4274
RSS Feeds | Powered by Foundation