I loved this earlier short by Mimi Schiffman called "Love = Love." I just don't see how you could vote for Amendment 1 after watching it. But then I am always the optimist.

So here's another Schiffman gem. (Thanks for sending it, Mimi.) It's a four-minute film about love, marriage and two guys from North Carolina who went to Washington, D.C., a few days ago because there they could have both.

She calls it "Just a Word."

"You know, everybody says it's just a word, but there's more to it. There's a feeling of belonging," said Jeff Enochs of Charlotte, N.C. "I wanted my state to recognize that we are going to spend the rest of our lives together."

Here's a Vimeo link that you can follow to see other Schiffman films. Schiffman is a graduate student at UNC-Chapel Hill.

Just for the record, there was some thought last night during the anti-Amendment 1 conference call that Obama for America would include a recommendation to the President's supporters to vote against Amendment 1 when OFA issued its pre-primary email blast s today.

President Obama, after all, issued a statement in March opposing Amendment 1.

But no.

Vote for Obama in the Democratic primary, is all that OFA says.

And — uh — you know, make your voice heard at the polls.

Here it is:

Here's a great way folks in North Carolina can show their support for President Obama: Participate in tomorrow's Democratic primary, and cast a vote for the President.

The primary is a great opportunity to come out, meet other supporters in your area, and make your voice heard. And even though we already know that President Obama will be our nominee, it's important that we let him know we're standing with him, now and in November.

Look up the polling place in your neighborhood now.

Here's everything you need to know:

Who can vote: Anyone who will be 18 years old by November 6th, 2012, and registered to vote by the April 13th deadline.

What to expect: Longtime registered voters don't need any form of ID to vote. If you are a first-time voter or are newly registered, bring a photo ID or a copy of any document that includes your name and current address (like a utility bill, government check, paycheck, or bank statement).

What if you're not registered at your current address? Unfortunately, you can't vote in the primary, but there is still time to register and cast a ballot for President Obama in November. To print a registration form, go to www.gottaregister.com or contact your local Obama field office.

When and where to vote: Primary voting runs from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. You can look up your local polling place here. Your vote matters, and this is one of our easiest chances before November to show President Obama that we've got his back.

So whether you've voted in one of these before, or you're brand-new to this experience, don't miss the North Carolina Democratic primary this Tuesday, May 8th.

Find your polling place now:

http://nc.barackobama.com/Find-Your-Polling-Place

Thanks,

Lindsay

Lindsay Siler
North Carolina State Director
Obama for America

• photo by Bob Geary

Fayetteville Street in Raleigh Saturday was out in force — OutRaleigh drew an estimated 10,000 folks, all of whom, it seemed, were loving the idea that Amendment 1 might be defeated on Tuesday, putting North Carolina in the forefront of what is undeniably a movement toward equal rights for the LGBT community. (See: Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday.)

OutRaleigh, a project of the LGBT Center of Raleigh, is great evidence of the movement, come to think of it. It hasn't been so many years since a celebration of gay rights on Fayetteville Street in the conservative Cap City would've been unthinkable ... and then controversial ... and now it's fun, and those who don't think so are mostly keeping it to themselves.

Unfortunately, Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill and the Triangle are not representative of the North Carolina electorate, apparently. Public Policy Polling is out with a final survey today, and it shows Amendment 1 passing rather easily. This is from PPP's Tom Jensen:

Our final marriage amendment poll finds it leading by a 55-39 margin, little change from a week ago when it was ahead 55-41. The final yes percentage will likely be somewhere in the 57-59% range depending on how the undecideds break. Opponents of the amendment had an uphill battle in convincing voters that it was anything other than a referendum on gay marriage, even though it does go a lot further than that. 57% of voters in the state think gay marriage should be illegal (to only 34% who think it should be legal) and it's not a coincidence that number correlates so closely with the 55% planning to support the amendment.

In some sense North Carolinians are voting against their own beliefs. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, yet a majority also support the amendment that would ban both. The reason for that disconnect is even with just 24 hours until election day only 46% of voters realize the proposal bans both gay marriage and civil unions. Those informed voters oppose the amendment by a 61-37 margin but there may not be enough time left to get the rest of the electorate up to speed.

On a conference call last night, the campaign manager for the anti-Amendment 1 Coalition to Protect All NC Families continued to express hope that PPP and the other polls showing a wide margin in favor of the amendment will be wrong. "I think we really have a chance for an upset Tuesday night, quite frankly," Jeremy Kennedy said.

That hope hinges on turnout — the idea that large numbers of "unlikely voters" will be drawn to the polls by their desire to vote Amendment 1 down. Pollsters must make some assumptions about who's likely to vote in a primary election, and generally they look for people who've voted in recent primaries. And generally that's a good polling method, producing numbers that are good predictors of the actual result. But if enough people show up to vote in this primary who've never voted in a primary before, it could change the results.

The coalition also released what it called its closing argument, a video mashup of statements against Amendment 1 by, among others, U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, Gov. Bev Perdue, former Charlotte Mayors Harvey Gantt and Richard Vinroot, NAACP President Ben Jealous and NC President the Rev. William Barber, Chelsea Clinton, Clay Aiken and some non-celebritie as well. It's a reminder that, win or lose, the campaign has broken new ground in North Carolina, giving political shape to what was previously an almost inchoate hope for change on the LGBT front.

There's nothing inchoate about it now. The coalition has raised more than $2.5 million from 11,000 donors, most of them in the state, Kennedy said. "Win or lose," he added, the movement will go on for justice for all minority and disadvantaged people in the state, with the NAACP and the LGBT leadership in coalition from now on.

Early voting is over. If you're registered to vote, the polls are open tomorrow, Tuesday, from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Remember that you can vote in one of the three party primaries (Dem, Repub, Libertarian) or simply ask for a ballot that has Amendment 1 on it by itself — without party candidates.

Former President Bill Clinton recorded a call to North Carolina voters urging them to vote against the anti-gay Amendment 1. That makes two presidents against it. President Obama issued a statement earlier.

Here's the YouTube version of Clinton's call:

The text, from the Coalition to Protect All NC Families:

Statement from President Clinton:

"Hello, this is President Bill Clinton. I’m calling to urge you to vote against Amendment One on Tuesday May 8. If it passes, it won’t change North Carolina’s law on marriage. What it will change is North Carolina’s ability to keep good businesses, attract new jobs, and attract and keep talented entrepreneurs. If it passes, your ability to keep those businesses, get those jobs, and get those talented entrepreneurs will be weakened. And losing even one job to Amendment One is too big of a risk.

Its passage will also take away health insurance from children and could even take away domestic violence protections from women. So the real effect of the law is not to keep the traditional definition of marriage, you’ve already done that. The real effect of the law will be to hurt families and drive away jobs. North Carolina can do better. Again, this is Bill Clinton asking you to please vote against Amendment One. Thanks."

It's just one poll, and a given poll can be off by the margin of error — which is 3 points in this one — or it can be wrong. (About one poll in 20 is simply incorrect, as we all learned in statistics).

Still, when Public Policy Polling reported a week ago that Amendment 1's lead was down to 14 points, about half of what it was a few months ago, that was good news for the opposition. Because (and here's another polling maxim), once there's movement in a given direction, it tends to continue, even to accelerate. The same forces that are causing some to make up their minds in a certain way early will cause others to make the same decisions later.

But now, bad news. Amendment 1, as of polling done April 27-29, is still ahead by 14 points.

It's all here in PPP's words. Republican voters are solidly for Amendment 1. Democrats? They're opposed, but not as solidly.

If there's a silver lining, it's that Democrats are probably a whole lot more likely to vote in the primaries than Republicans, given that Mitt and McCrory (there's a team) have their races wrapped up.

In fact, there are other silver linings as well. When people are told (N.B. to the anti-campaign: Tell them) that Amendment 1 would ban civil unions in addition to defining marriage as heterosex-only, they turn sharply against it. It's a 22-point swing, from a 14-percent lead to an 8-percent deficit.

Plus, the youth are really against Amendment 1, and they may be turning out (in early voting, it looks like they are) to an unexpected degree because they're so against it.

Intensity matters. Here's an FYI: The Coalition for All NC Families, the anti-Amendment 1 group, lists 9,600 individual contributors on its new report to the State Board of Elections. That's 37 pages worth of donors (look at the second report listed, called Disclosure) through about a week ago. The Vote for Marriage side — the pro-Amendment campaign team — lists 754 individual donors; they fit on three pages.

Most of the pro-Amendment 1 money comes is coming from the Christian Action League, the National Organization for Marriage, and the Raleigh and Charlotte dioceses of the Roman Catholic Church. Plus a guy named Phil Drake.

Overall, the Coalition — the anti-Amendment 1 group — has raised more than $2.2 million, which is kind of amazing. The Vote for Marriage side has brought in $1.2 million.

From PPP's press release:

The good news for the amendment’s opponents is that more voters are now aware of the amendment’s consequences, and if all voters were informed of those consequences, the amendment would fail by a 38-46 margin, the same as last week.

A 40% plurality now knows that the amendment would ban both same-sex marriage and civil unions, versus 36% in the previous survey. Those who know what the amendment would do are against it by 22 points, but they are outweighed by the strong support from the uneducated.

As part of the overall 22-point shift, Democrats move 21 points, Republicans 24 points, and independents 16 points against the amendment when told it would ban both marriage and civil unions for gay couples.

The reason this message has an impact is that 55% of these primary voters want same-sex couples to at least have the same legal rights as married heterosexual couples, if not full marriage equality. That includes 67% of Democrats, 60% of independents, and even 35% of Republicans.

“Voters who understand what the amendment does are opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there’s a lot of education left to be done in this final week of the campaign.”