So, reading my mail and after a couple of conversations while I was moving around today:

Lt. Walter Dalton is in the race for the Democratic nomination for governor. Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx is looking it over. Erskine Bowles is making calls, testing the waters. A progressive group is pushing hard for Brad Miller, who didn't rule it out this morning. (And why would he — rule it out, I mean?) State Treasurer Janet Cowell issued a statement that she plans for run for re-election as treasurer and won't be in the gubernatorial field.

• Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton

Heard that former State Rep. Cal Cunningham is looking at another run for Lit. Gov. He lost a primary for U.S. Senatre in 2010 to Elaine Marshall. [Corrected to put Cunningham in the correct prior primary campaign instead of the one my faulty memory had him in.] I expect we'll see a lot of people looking at the Lt. Gov. race — Deborah Ross, Jennifer Weiss, Grier Martin, other redistricted into legislative seats with each other and/or to Republican-heavy districts they can't win. Should be wide open.

If you're thinking of running for governor, my advice: Announce first, figure out how later. The cell towers are burning up.

This is from Walter Dalton an hour ago:

“I believe that our future economy and better jobs depend on our historic commitment to education. After all, education is in North Carolina’s DNA — it's what sets us apart and it's what will determine our future. However, you can’t make progress if you are pointed in the wrong direction. Pat McCrory and the Republican leadership are facing the wrong way by cutting teachers, reducing scholarships and abandoning economic development. They are doing lasting damage to our state. I’ve dedicated my career to improving education at all levels and making North Carolina a great place to do business.

“Today, I'm announcing that I am running for Governor. Lucille and I love this state and we understand tough political races. I am the only candidate who has run and won statewide and I look forward to waging an aggressive campaign. Elections are about choices. As a state we must decide the direction in which we will turn. With this campaign, I choose to look ahead to a brighter future. I choose progress. I choose a future where public education is the foundation of our economy.”

www.walterdalton.org

[Update: Might as well throw in PPP's analysis of possible other Democratic candidates. Standing here listening to WRAL go through the list, they missed Erskine Bowles — he's rich and raising money is going to be a problem for anyone who has to start today from square one. And Bowles is only a two-time loser in NC, maybe the third time's the charm. I'll copy it below Perdue's statement.]

Here is Perdue's statement:

Like the rest of the nation, North Carolina has been facing difficult economic times — demanding many difficult decisions. I have had to make painful budget cuts in important areas of government. But I believe I have approached this challenge in a way that is consistent with my values and the values that have made our state a wonderful place to live and raise a family. I have spent my tenure in office - and, in fact, my adult lifetime - fighting for things that I care deeply about. And as anyone who knows me will tell you, I do not back down from tough fights.

• Gov. Bev Perdue

But I understand this: We live in highly partisan times, where some people seem more worried about scoring political points than working together to address the real challenges our state faces. And it is clear to me that my race for re-election will only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools. A re-election campaign in this already divisive environment will make it more difficult to find any bipartisan solutions.

The thing I care about most right now is making sure that our schools and schoolchildren do not continue to be the victims of shortsighted legislative actions and severe budget cuts inflicted by a legislative majority with the wrong priorities. Therefore, I am announcing today that I have decided not to seek re-election. I hope this decision will open the door to an honest and bipartisan effort to help our schools.

To those of you who have supported me throughout my years of public service, I will always be grateful for the confidence you have placed in me. In my remaining months in office, I look forward to continuing to fight for the priorities we share, by putting North Carolinians back to work and investing in our children's future. To my children and grandchildren, and especially to my husband Bob, thank you for always being there for me - especially as I've weighed this difficult decision.

Thank you all, and God bless North Carolina.

From Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling, an analysis of the options:

The biggest lesson of Bev Perdue's single term as Governor might be the importance of making a good first impression. The final time we found Perdue with a positive approval rating was in April of 2009 at 41/40, only 3 months after she took office. By July, after a disastrous legislative session where she appeared weak and indecisive, her approval rating was 25% with 55% of voters disapproving of her. She doomed her chances at reelection in those three months between April and July of 2009. She's been one of the most unpopular Governors in the country ever since then.

Perdue tried too hard to please all sides during that critical early period of her tenure and as a result just antagonized everybody. That July 2009 poll found that even Democrats disapproved of her, 38/40, and her numbers with independents (20/58) and Republicans (9/73) were abysmal.

Perdue became a better Governor after that and by the end of 2011 her net approval rating had improved 19 points from the summer of 2009 to a 37/48 spread. Her strong efforts in fighting Republican attempts to cut funding to education caused significant upticks in her support from Democrats (58/28) and independents (35/45). But it was too little too late.

Perdue trailed Pat McCrory by increasing margins of 9, 10, and 11 points over the last three months of our polling. Her chances at reelection were close to nil, and the party's chances at keeping the Governor's office are better without her than they were with her.

Make no mistake though- this is not a toss up race. Pat McCrory will start out as the favorite pretty much no matter who ends up running on the Democratic side. McCrory is an unusually strong candidate- our last statewide poll found 40% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 24% with a negative one, very solid numbers in a state that doesn't much like any of its politicians right now.

McCrory has nearly a 2:1 favorability ratio with independents at 37/19, and an unusual amount of crossover popularity with 26% of Democrats seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative opinions. Those numbers will decline as he comes under attack in a statewide campaign, and he's made a significant political error by tying himself closely to a Legislative that has a 16% approval rating. But he starts out extremely formidable.

In October we did a poll testing potential alternative candidates to Perdue:

-Erskine Bowles tied Pat McCrory at 42%. It's important to remember that even though Bowles lost in a 2004 Senate bid, he outran the Kerry/Edwards ticket by 7 points. The political landscape in North Carolina has a changed a lot since 2004 and if you outrun the national ticket by 7 points this year in the state, you win.

-Attorney General Roy Cooper trailed Pat McCrory only 42-39.

-Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton trailed McCrory 46-32.

-State Representative Bill Faison trailed McCrory 45-30.

Those folks all polled better or about as well as Perdue is now. Democrats' chances of holding on are still less than 50%...but they're better than they were with Perdue. We'll have fresh polling soon looking at the Governor's race in the post-Perdue landscape.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/breaking-down-north-carolina.html

Congressman Brad Miller issued a statement this morning in the form of an explanation to supporters: He won't run against Rep. David Price in the new 4th Congressional District. The two Democrats are packed into the 4th as the result of the redistricting plan enacted by the Republican-led General Assembly. Here's Miller's statement; I spoke with him yesterday on background and will add a thought or two to this later this morning:

• Congressman Brad Miller, D-Raleigh

Because your support has been so important to me, I wanted you to hear from me that I will not seek another term in Congress.

Serving in Congress has been a remarkable opportunity. Thank you.

I knew Republicans in the legislature would dismantle the district that I have represented for the last decade, and they did. The thirteenth district was split six ways. I also knew that they would create one packed Democratic district in the Triangle, so that all the surrounding districts would be Republican, and they did. I knew that both David Price and I would both reside in that district, and we do. And I knew that the district would include the neighborhoods that we have each looked to for our support, and it does.

The new fourth district includes 33 percent of the old fourth and 31 percent of the old thirteenth, the largest piece of my old district.

I told David within a week of the election last year that with Republicans in control of redistricting, we would almost certainly be drawn into the same district. And to be honest, since David has broadly hinted to me and others that he would only serve one more term, I believed that he would retire a term earlier than he intended in the circumstances. That obviously has not happened. David has made it very clear that he intends to run again. I have two choices: run in a primary with David, or not seek another term.

Because David has represented Wake County and I have represented none of Orange or Durham, I would be the underdog in a primary with David. I have begun campaigns in the past as the underdog, and campaigned with great energy, enthusiasm and joy.

There would be no joy in this campaign.

I have spoken to many friends who have supported both David and me in the past. Some would support me and some would support David. But none wanted to see a primary between us.

Although David and I have generally been friends and allies in the past, there are important differences between us. In fact, I think those differences are over what we now understand to be defining issues in American politics. We need debates over those issues in the Democratic Party, including in primaries.

But most of David’s and my mutual supporters shrugged off those differences at the time, if they even knew about them, and quickly forgave whichever one of us with whom they disagreed.

I do not have an agreement with David to step aside now and run in two years when he retires, as has been widely rumored, nor have I tried to strike any deal. The reality is that if I sat out a term and returned to Congress, I would be starting over for most purposes. I would have no assurance of my committee assignments and even if I won assignment to the same committees, I would lose all seniority. Just as important, the debate on the issues that I care about, and on which I am now a leader, would move on. No, I could not simply pick up where I left off.

Also, redistricting in North Carolina has left very few opportunities for talented younger Democrats, of whom there are many in this district. In two years, maybe it should be someone else’s turn.

Finally, voters might not feel bound by a deal between politicians over who gets a congressional seat.

I am proud of the work I’ve done in Congress. What has happened in our economy in the last few years has offended most Americans’ sense of justice, including mine. The financial crisis was not caused by a “perfect storm” of unforeseeable events. The financial crisis was the result of blameworthy conduct, what Franklin Roosevelt called “heedless greed.” The people who were responsible for the crisis, and for the painful recession that followed, have suffered very little. The people who have suffered the most, who have lost their jobs and their homes, were almost entirely blameless.

In the face of the financial crisis, and all that we have learned since then, I have been determined to do all within my power to reform our economy so that we never suffer another financial crisis, and to hold those responsible for the crisis accountable.

There have been some real accomplishments. The predatory mortgage legislation that I first introduced in 2004 was included in the financial reform legislation signed by President Obama in 2010, as was the creation of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

I have introduced other legislation that has yet to become law, and will not this year under a Republican Congress, but that has changed the debate on financial reform. I introduced legislation to allow the judicial modification of mortgages in bankruptcy, to break up the biggest banks, to end some of the conflicts of interest by the biggest banks, to make it easier for consumers to change banks, to provide tough legal requirements for how banks “service” mortgages, and on and on. Those issues will not go away and will be the beginning of a reform agenda for the future.

And I remain hopeful that legislation I introduced to compensate the victims of the contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune, The Janey Ensminger Act, will become law this year.

I will continue those fights for the next eleven months, and I hope beyond.

Again, thank you for the chance to serve our nation in Congress.

###

Governor Bev Perdue kicked off the 2012 budget debate today — and (unofficially) kicked off her 2012 re-electon campaign — with a call for increased school funding. Specifically, she wants 3/4ths of that temporary 1-cent sales tax for education back temporarily.

(Which, by the way, would yield a tidy $863 million in extra revenues next year, according to the N.C. Budget & Tax Center's Alexandra Sirota.)

The N.C. Council of Churches approves. Here's the council's "Raleigh Report" fresh off the tubes, suggesting that you let the governor and your legislators know where you stand —

Raleigh Report Network—

Governor Perdue earlier today called on the General Assembly to restore three-quarters of a cent of sales tax which the General Assembly allowed to expire last year and to use the money to reduce cuts to education.

In her statement, the Governor noted that “The North Carolina Association of School Administrators pointed out recently that North Carolina has fallen to 49th in the nation in per-pupil funding. The legislature’s budget has hurt education at all levels — from pre-k all the way through higher education — and has led to higher class sizes and the loss of thousands of teacher and teaching assistant positions. And their budget forces even more teacher layoffs next year — we must act to prevent these additional cuts.”

The Covenant with North Carolina’s Children, of which the NC Council of Churches was a founding member, pointed out that “nearly 1,800 educators lost their jobs as a result of last year’s budget. Additionally, funding cuts to NC Pre-K (formerly known as More at Four) have resulted in the loss of over 6,300 pre-kindergarten slots for children.” Students in the state’s universities and community colleges are facing larger classes, fewer course options, higher tuitions, and the prospect of it taking more than four years to complete required courses for their degree.

The North Carolina Council of Churches has long supported a fair tax structure that raises funding necessary for the state to provide crucial services. Nothing the state does is more important for social justice that providing a sound basic education for the state’s children and young people, regardless of their ability to pay, regardless of where they live, and regardless of their varying abilities and disabilities.

We opposed the elimination of this emergency sales tax last year (and also the elimination of the emergency income tax surcharge on the state’s wealthiest citizens, which the Governor is not proposing to add back). The sales tax will be in the Governor’s budget for the 2012-13 fiscal year, and we will join with others in advocating for its passage.

For now, you can take two actions:

1) E-mail the Governor and thank her for taking this courageous step to restore needed funding for education. It won’t take you long to do it, and she needs to hear from people of faith who support public education. By phone: 919-733-4240. By e-mail: governor.office@nc.gov.

2) E-mail your state senator and state representative to call on them to support the restoration of the emergency sales tax increase. People across the state have now had a chance to see what the cuts in funding mean to education. We need not to let our students endure even one more school year of larger classes, fewer instructional personnel, and inaccessible programs.

To find contact information for your legislators while they are not in session, go to the General Assembly website, www.ncleg.net, and click on “House” and “Senate”.